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India upgrades economic growth forecasts 2025-26 to 7.4%

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India's economy is expected to grow 7.4% in the fiscal year ending in March, the National Statistics Office said on Wednesday, above the government's initial projection of 6.3%-6.8%.

India's first advance estimate of gross domestic product (GDP), which will undergo revisions over time as data coverage improves, will be used as a base for the federal budget due to be announced on February 1.

The Indian economy grew 6.5% in 2024/25 and 9.2% in 2023/24.

In nominal terms, which factor in inflation, the economy is expected to grow 8%, compared with the 10.1% estimate in the annual federal budget announced last February.

Private consumption, which accounts for about 60% of GDP, was seen expanding by 7% year-on-year compared to a 7.2% expansion last fiscal year.

Government spending is estimated to rise by 5.2% year-on-year in 2025/26, up from a 2.3% increase the previous year, while private investment is seen rising by 7.8%, higher than the 7.1% growth the year before.

Manufacturing, which accounts for about 13% of GDP, is projected to expand 7% year-on-year in 2025/26, compared with 4.5% a year ago, while construction output was seen growing by 7%, down from 9.4% in the previous year, data showed.

Growth in farm output, that employs more than 40% of the workforce, was seen picking up to 3.1% in the current fiscal year from 4.6% a year ago.

(Reporting by Shivangi Acharya and Nikunj Ohri; Editing by Hugh Lawson and Mrigank Dhaniwala)

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FAQ
1.What is the expected growth rate for manufacturing in the fiscal year 2025/26?
Manufacturing is projected to expand by 7% year-on-year.
2.What is the projected growth rate of private consumption for the fiscal year?
Private consumption is expected to expand by 7% year-on-year.
3.What will the first advance estimate of GDP be used for?
It will be used as a base for the federal budget to be announced on February 1.
4.How does the expected growth rate compare to the government's initial projection?
It is above the government's initial projection of 6.3%-6.8%.
5.What is the expected GDP growth rate for India in the fiscal year ending in March?
7.4%
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